In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

This paper addresses the challenges of optimally placing a finite number of sensors to detect Poisson-distributed targets in a bounded domain. We seek to rigorously account for uncertainty in the target arrival model throughout the problem. Sensor locations are selected to maximize the probability that no targets are missed. While this objective function is well-suited to applications where failure to detect targets is highly undesirable, it does not lead to a computationally efficient optimization problem. We propose an approximation of the objective function that is non-negative, submodular, and monotone and for which greedy selection of sensor locations works well. We also characterize the gap between the desired objective function and our approximation. For numerical illustrations, we consider the case of the detection of ship traffic using sensors mounted on the seafloor.

This paper presents an algorithm that relies on a series of dense and deep neural networks for passive microwave retrieval of precipitation. The neural networks learn from coincidences of brightness temperatures from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) with the active precipitating retrievals from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard GPM as well as those from the {CloudSat} Profiling Radar (CPR). The algorithm first detects the precipitation occurrence and phase and then estimates its rate, while conditioning the results to some key ancillary information including parameters related to cloud microphysical properties. The results indicate that we can reconstruct the DPR rainfall and CPR snowfall with a detection probability of more than 0.95 while the probability of a false alarm remains below 0.08 and 0.03, respectively. Conditioned to the occurrence of precipitation, the unbiased root mean squared error in estimation of rainfall (snowfall) rate using DPR (CPR) data is less than 0.8 (0.1) mm/hr over oceans and land. Beyond methodological developments, comparing the results with ERA5 reanalysis and official GPM products demonstrates that the uncertainty in global satellite snowfall retrievals continues to be large while there is a good agreement among rainfall products. Moreover, the results indicate that CPR active snowfall data can improve passive microwave estimates of global snowfall while the current CPR rainfall retrievals should only be used for detection and not estimation of rates.

Extreme waves in the Arctic typically occur every 20 years, but as climate change continues to plague the region these events could happen every two to five years, a new study reveals. Much of this area is frozen for a majority of the year, but rising temperatures have increased periods of open water that could result in catastrophic waves. Using computer models, researchers found the area hit the hardest was in the Greenland Sea, which could experience maximum annual wave heights of more than 19 feet. The team also warns coastal flooding might increase by a factor of four to 10 by the end of this century. Extreme waves in the Arctic typically occur every 20 years, but as climate change continues to plague the region these events could happen every two to five years, a new study reveals.