Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows for distributed development of individual components within a common framework, unified by a coupler that handles translation between realms via spatial or temporal alignment and flux exchange. Following a similar approach adapted for machine learning-based emulators, we present SamudrACE: a coupled global climate model emulator which produces centuries-long simulations at 1-degree horizontal, 6-hourly atmospheric, and 5-daily oceanic resolution, with 145 2D fields spanning 8 atmospheric and 19 oceanic vertical levels, plus sea ice, surface, and top-of-atmosphere variables. SamudrACE is highly stable and has low climate biases comparable to those of its components with prescribed boundary forcing, with realistic variability in coupled climate phenomena such as ENSO that is not possible to simulate in uncoupled mode.

This paper presents a framework for classifying and detecting spatial commission outliers in maritime environments using seabed acoustic sensor networks and log Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs). By modeling target arrivals as a mixture of normal and outlier processes, we estimate the probability that a newly observed event is an outlier. We propose a second-order approximation of this probability that incorporates both the mean and variance of the normal intensity function, providing improved classification accuracy compared to mean-only approaches. We analytically show that our method yields a tighter bound to the true probability using Jensen's inequality. To enhance detection, we integrate a real-time, near-optimal sensor placement strategy that dynamically adjusts sensor locations based on the evolving outlier intensity. The proposed framework is validated using real ship traffic data near Norfolk, Virginia, where numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving both classification performance and outlier detection through sensor deployment.

Sensor locations to detect Poisson-distributed targets, such as seabed sensors that detect shipping traffic, can be selected to maximize the so-called void probability, which is the probability of detecting all targets. Because evaluation of void probability is computationally expensive, we propose a new approximation of void probability that can greatly reduce the computational cost of selecting locations for a network of sensors. We build upon prior work that approximates void probability using Jensen's inequality. Our new approach better accommodates uncertainty in the (Poisson) target model and yields a sharper error bound. The proposed method is evaluated using historical ship traffic data from the Hampton Roads Channel, Virginia, demonstrating a reduction in the approximation error compared to the previous approach. The results validate the effectiveness of the improved approximation for maritime surveillance applications.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

This paper addresses the challenges of optimally placing a finite number of sensors to detect Poisson-distributed targets in a bounded domain. We seek to rigorously account for uncertainty in the target arrival model throughout the problem. Sensor locations are selected to maximize the probability that no targets are missed. While this objective function is well-suited to applications where failure to detect targets is highly undesirable, it does not lead to a computationally efficient optimization problem. We propose an approximation of the objective function that is non-negative, submodular, and monotone and for which greedy selection of sensor locations works well. We also characterize the gap between the desired objective function and our approximation. For numerical illustrations, we consider the case of the detection of ship traffic using sensors mounted on the seafloor.

This paper presents an algorithm that relies on a series of dense and deep neural networks for passive microwave retrieval of precipitation. The neural networks learn from coincidences of brightness temperatures from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) with the active precipitating retrievals from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) onboard GPM as well as those from the {CloudSat} Profiling Radar (CPR). The algorithm first detects the precipitation occurrence and phase and then estimates its rate, while conditioning the results to some key ancillary information including parameters related to cloud microphysical properties. The results indicate that we can reconstruct the DPR rainfall and CPR snowfall with a detection probability of more than 0.95 while the probability of a false alarm remains below 0.08 and 0.03, respectively. Conditioned to the occurrence of precipitation, the unbiased root mean squared error in estimation of rainfall (snowfall) rate using DPR (CPR) data is less than 0.8 (0.1) mm/hr over oceans and land. Beyond methodological developments, comparing the results with ERA5 reanalysis and official GPM products demonstrates that the uncertainty in global satellite snowfall retrievals continues to be large while there is a good agreement among rainfall products. Moreover, the results indicate that CPR active snowfall data can improve passive microwave estimates of global snowfall while the current CPR rainfall retrievals should only be used for detection and not estimation of rates.

Extreme waves in the Arctic typically occur every 20 years, but as climate change continues to plague the region these events could happen every two to five years, a new study reveals. Much of this area is frozen for a majority of the year, but rising temperatures have increased periods of open water that could result in catastrophic waves. Using computer models, researchers found the area hit the hardest was in the Greenland Sea, which could experience maximum annual wave heights of more than 19 feet. The team also warns coastal flooding might increase by a factor of four to 10 by the end of this century. Extreme waves in the Arctic typically occur every 20 years, but as climate change continues to plague the region these events could happen every two to five years, a new study reveals.